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Newcastle vs Nott'm Forest

Wed 30 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Newcastle win: 43.4%

Draw: 25.2%

Nott'm Forest win: 31.4%

Predicted: Newcastle

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.57

More corners: Newcastle (57.8% home / 42.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Newcastle

Yes

Probability Newcastle wins or draws: 71.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Newcastle Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 31%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Newcastle win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.